Will they run the world?
My main interest in China in my childhood years was Flying Tigers. (Go to: http://www.flyingtigersavg.com/tiger1.htm for information on Flying Tigers on their official site.) Retired Air Force Captain Clair L. Chennault was invited to review air operations in China in 1937. He stayed there until the end of the war in 1945. Who invited him? Why Madame Chiang Kai-shek.
When Lieutenant General Joseph W. Stilwell came into the defense of China, I became interested in Burma operations that were attempting to cut supply lines from Japan to China. We all know that Stilwell was captured by the Japanese and that he was on the battleship Missouri at the surrender of Japan in 1945. (Read about the defense of China at: http://www.army.mil/cmh-pg/brochures/72 – 38 / 72-38.htm.)
Other than the Boxer Rebellion, I still know little about Chinese history. (Well, I saw the movie starring Ava Gardner. “55 Days at Peking” 1963 [http://www.avagardner.org/movientv.html])
The Boxers really were the “Fair Harmony Society.” They resented the demands of foreigners and decided to expel them from northern China in 1900. (Read about the Rebellion at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boxer_Rebellion).
At the end of the war, my brother sailed to China in Tiensen, strapped a 45mm pistol to his hip, and left for the city. He still talks about it.
The Chinese have always been suspicious of the intentions of foreigners. I think that is still a factor in our relationship with them today.
Now that I have established that I am NOT an “old hand from China”, we can get on with whatever it is that I am trying to say.
History of US-China Relations
From: [http://www.with.psu.edu/articles/article.phtml?article_id=50&show_id=9], I have generated an outline of the relations between the United States and China.
1700: trade between China and the United States.
1850s: Famine in China, the gold rush in the US railroad building.
1880s: Economic depression in the US Chinese Exclusion Act in 1882.
1965: Restrictions on immigration in China are lifted.
[1945-1949:GuerracivilenChinaSeformólaRepúblicaPopularChina(ChinaRoja)EstadosUnidosreconoceaTaiwánperonoaChinaRoja
1972: El presidente Richard Nixon visita China para reunirse con el presidente Mao Zedong y mejorar las relaciones. Se reanudan las relaciones diplomáticas. Más libertad para los ciudadanos chinos y las pequeñas empresas. (Creo que Nixon solo quería ver la Gran Muralla. No puedes verla desde Washington. Ni siquiera puedes verla desde la Luna Sin Nombre, a pesar de lo que dicen algunas personas).
Déficits comerciales
Hoy en día, cuando escuchamos sobre China, generalmente escuchamos acerca de los enormes déficits comerciales que aumentan con el tiempo. Lo que esto significa para la mayoría de los estadounidenses es que lo que los japoneses y los árabes no han comprado en Estados Unidos, lo harán los chinos.
Los déficits comerciales son actualmente y seguirán siendo altos con China. Para lo que este novato piensa es una buena explicación de lo que esto significa, lea el artículo de Daniel T. Griswold en: http://www.freetrade.org/pubs/pas/tpa-002.html. Afirmó que muchos políticos no tienen idea de lo que están hablando con respecto a los déficits comerciales y que los déficits comerciales pueden ser beneficiosos.
Me quedo fuera de ese argumento, libre comercio versus comercio restringido. Creo que el libre comercio llegó para quedarse y no será el único factor que hará que el tigre chino nos coma vivos. ¡Engulle, engulle!
Nuestros socios comerciales quieren una economía vibrante en los EE. UU. Porque dependen de ella para sustentar sus economías. No lo pondrán en peligro en tiempos normales. Dije eso para aliviar temporalmente la tensión.
Roma y el Imperio Británico
Lo siguiente no tiene nada que ver con la discusión. Lo he añadido para que se sepa que sospecho que se avecina un desastre, tal vez. Si pudiera tocar algo de música de “Twilight Zone”, lo haría en su lugar.
El profesor Gerhard Rempel, Western New England College, analiza la caída del imperio romano en: [http://mars.acnet.wnec.edu/~grempel/courses/wc1/lectures/14romefell.html]. Internal and external forces and subsequent financial burdens weakened the empire until it could not defend itself or maintain stability.
If you extend a nation beyond its limits, as we stretch, it will thin and weaken until its flaws open up and become vulnerable to attack (My words).
I added the last sentence to make things seem scarier.
Anyway, we all know that the fall of the Roman Empire was due to drinking wine from lead vessels. My grandfather developed lead poisoning from working in mines with somewhat soluble lead ores. He said it completely sapped his strength and it took him years to recover. (Actually, I was an expert in this area having dealt with the FDA and OSHA over the years, but I don’t want to brag about it.)
According to: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Empire, “The British Empire was the world’s first global power, a product of the Age of European Exploration that began with the global maritime empires of Portugal and Spain in the late 15th century. In 1921, the British Empire dominated a population of between 470 and 570 million people, about a quarter of the world’s population, and covered approximately 15 million square miles (almost 37 million square kilometers), almost a third of the world’s total land. area. “
The British Empire liberated its colonies after World War II by agreements made during the war. Australia, New Zealand and Canada decided to make more decisions on their own. Financially weakened by World War II, the British people and their government decided that the days of their imperialism were over.
Is our empire fading too? (I ask, “Why not?”)
Will there be Chinese aggression?
When I was in Korea, all of our fighting (my unit) was with Chinese troops. These were young men sent to liberate North Korea. Hundreds of thousands crossed the Manchurian border and in an organized attack chased UN forces (including my unit and some of my friends) into Pusan.
We captured some of these young people when I was there in 1951-1952. The ones I saw and spoke to were very tall, dressed in padded suits (which I later learned would stop a round from my carbine), and they were happy to be out of the war. They surrendered after our airstrikes injured some of them and they needed medical attention.
There are many young men in China who do not have wives or boyfriends due to the desire to ensure that the only child allowed is a boy. It may sound harsh, but war is one way to reduce such an excess male population. If an opportunity presents itself, could it happen again? Civil war in China would work! Let’s not expect that.
Taiwan
Taiwan is a pain on the side of Red China. At least that’s what they say. Before World War II, Hitler said that Czechoslovakia was a spear in the side of Germany. Look at the map! So, Hitler was the first.
Actually, the Chinese did not say that. I made it up so I could quote Hitler. I found out the day I attended my brother’s history class at UCLA when I came back from Korea.
When the professor said that about Czechoslovakia, I laughed. He slowly turned away from the board and looked to see who had laughed.
My brother later explained that there was no culture at UCLA.
I returned to UCLA in 1966 to take a course in high temperature thermodynamics. So I talked to the students and they told me that there was no culture there.
I came back again in 1974 and lo and behold, the culture was back!
I guess I shouldn’t call mainland China mainland now that they are heavily capitalist.
It would appear that Taiwan and the mainland have resolved their differences due to the growth of capitalism in the area, but they have not been resolved. A major dispute between the two could be disastrous for our country and the rest of the capitalist world. They need to kiss and reconcile.
We are committed to protecting Taiwan. Perhaps that policy should be reconsidered. After all, our old ally Chiang Kai-shek is long gone. But remember that our State Department likes to honor past commitments and will probably not change its policy toward Taiwan.
I don’t think we see the Chinese making a pilgrimage across the Bering Sea, but they have missiles, airpower, and nasty nuclear weapons. The former Soviet Union always reinforced its borders and was willing to stop any Chinese aggression even though they were allies.
My advice here is: Always be nice to the Chinese!
By Henny Penny
Competition for resources could precipitate trouble between China and the rest of the capitalist world. A major food shortage could push the Chinese beyond their borders. The demand for the “good life” will likely create higher demand for oil and much higher oil prices even in the near future. The need to reduce its population could result in wars of attrition. The Chinese population may be reduced by pandemics. It is so, so will ours!
Hopefully the “old hands of China” know what is happening in China and keep us out of the war with China and in good trade relations. Hopefully China can successfully handle its problems.
How the Chinese could help us all
The Chinese are used to dealing with difficult problems related to huge populations. They also have enormous military resources that could be used to reduce tensions (not just intensify them) in the world. They appear to be natural businessmen and could help stabilize the world economy. I think it would be much better to establish closer ties with China than to weaken them. What do you think now that you are an expert in the area?
copyright © 2005 John T. Jones, Ph.D.