Many of our communities have participated in community needs assessments, community health needs assessments, community economic development plans, and ongoing planning for the built environment. All of these planning lenses are useful ways to look at communities and build for the future. One of the most important lenses to use in community planning over the next 10 to 20 years is the projected impact of aging on our communities, counties, and states. What will it mean for a state to go from being 39th in proportion of older adults in 2010, to 4th in 2030? What does it mean for a county to have a population change that includes an increase in seniors of more than 100% in the next 10 years, along with a projected reduction in people under 40?
Understand the demographic trend
The demographic trend has been called by many names, such as “Age Wave” or “Silver Tsunami,” with arguments in meetups and blogs about whether those terms are useful or pejorative, descriptive or discriminatory. Also, some people find the terms “elderly” difficult, while others find “elderly” patronizing. Once people have dealt with analyzing the grammatical minefield, the most important questions are to understand both the demographic trend and other substantive factors.
Although a few in the field indicate that population aging is rather slow and easily absorbed, the vast majority of experts agree that this is a significant and fast-moving trend that will not be easily absorbed. The research I’ve conducted has covered everything from future health professional shortages and gaps in the health system to the built environment, funding, and policy trends. The potential impact of our aging population on communities and states is significant. It will require proactive and sustained responses at the community, state and national levels.
Some communities and states are better positioned to respond to this trend than others.
The impact also depends on a few other key factors.
The ability of groups to respond effectively depends on a number of other key factors. Although demographic trends are the primary issue, other important factors that affect our responsiveness include the following:
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General health of the community;
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Poverty levels, average and median income (especially for middle-aged and elderly people);
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Local municipal budgets, economic qualifications and tax capacity;
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Legislation, policies and financing related to aging and community development;
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Regional infrastructure and built environment.
The impact of demographic trends is also determined by the state of community and regional planning that already exists to address the impact of aging in our communities. Leadership and citizen participation are also important factors that could help drive and mobilize initiatives. Leaders can and should respond. The problems are complex, but not overwhelming. However, they must be addressed proactively.
How a social calculator can predict the potential impact of aging for communities and states
Many of these factors have been explored by our team through a series of aging-related research and planning projects in recent years. We are now completing a Social Impact Calculator for Aging that can provide an initial analysis of the local environment and the state environment. Examines the key factors that shape the social, economic, and community health of a county or state.
Research projects I have recently completed show that social determinants of health, health rankings, economic benchmarks, and policy issues either help communities and states move forward or serve as additional challenges.
Social determinants. Social Determinants shape us as individuals, families, and communities. They include things such as family income, jobs, poverty, and financial assets. Income, assets, poverty, and unemployment have been shown to be some of the most important determinants of family and community health, health disparities, and health equity. Race and ethnicity have been considered extremely important by the World Health Organization, US federal government offices, and the health research and financing community. Individual, family and community educational levels are also significant. Taken together, or aggregated, one finds snapshots of the community that reflect the local economy, jobs, and poverty; racial and ethnic mix; and educational levels. They help predict how our lives will be shaped in the future.
Community and State Health Classifications. Many research groups rate communities and states based on their overall health. One of the key national rankings used is the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJ) annual assessment. County health roadmaps and rankings. They provide excellent state and county ratings based on analysis using more than a dozen separate indicators. That ranking provides extremely important information to help determine if an area faces significant health disparities and inequities. The ratings can tell planners whether community health problems will pose additional challenges that will negatively affect the community’s ability to respond to the aging trend; or whether positive community health will make it easier for communities to implement strategies to respond. These health rankings can help inform the plans that most effectively address key issues.
Economic Benchmarks. Communities are greatly shaped by economic trends large and small. Short-term and long-term economic ratings provide a picture of the economic health of the community. Counties and states with strong economic ratings are better able to respond to these challenges than those with a weak economic outlook. Communities facing loss of jobs and capital, and a shrinking tax base, are not as well positioned to respond to the Age Wave as communities with a different economic landscape.
Other factors that can also help predict the impact of demographic trends include whether or not a region has a net population loss. Areas that are losing population also begin to lose jobs and infrastructure over time, unless this can be proactively addressed.
Laws, policies, legislative initiatives, and funding priorities and strategies can also determine how well a local community or state can respond to this trend. Policies and funding that support economic development, the built environment, and services for older adults provide an environment that facilitates a community or county’s proactive response to this demographic trend.
The power of collective impact
The combined or collective impact of (1) demographic trends, (2) social determinants, (3) health rankings, (4) local and state economies, and (5) policies together shape the sustainability of a region. They can also serve as general predictors of how hard a community has been hit by an aging population. Taken together, these factors provide a picture of what can happen for communities, counties, and states. They help us understand the current and projected collective impact.
Aging Social Impact Calculator
The Social Impact on Aging Calculator analyzes states and counties, and provides an initial prediction of the level of impact you can expect from population aging in your region. Some of the most important landmarks that make up the predictive image include:
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demographic factors
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The social determinants of health
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County Health Classification (Health Outcomes and Health Risk Behaviors)
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Economic image of the county
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Policy framework and financing
work with a predictor
Any social impact calculator has predictive capabilities. Many economic calculators have been used successfully by the World Bank, the Low Income Investment Fund, and others. The Robert Wood Johnson County Health Roadmaps and Rankings and profiles of state-level health departments (such as New Mexico Community Snapshots) provide images of community health that capture both the present and the near future. The Aging Social Impact Calculator provides snapshots of the projected impact on a community, and the community’s strengths and weaknesses that will affect its ability to respond. It provides a useful picture of state and local capacity, which can help leaders choose priorities that fit their response capacity.
The predictors offer a holistic big picture that can serve as an important starting point for communities and states to respond to the needs of older adults. They serve as broad frameworks or roadmaps. Once a predictive profile is developed, community leaders can drill down into the community to:
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Understand and address key issues;
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Choose priorities and create the size and scope of a response that matches the capacity of the community;
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Build on the strengths and assets of the community;
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Reduce risks;
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Create plans that bring stakeholders together and leverage resources.
Each state and community has its own unique resources that can be used to respond to this problem, which are complex and difficult to measure with a social impact calculator. These include the wealthy family and social networks, community leaders, volunteers, faith communities, and civic organizations that represent important community assets.
1. The term “age wave” was coined by Ken Dychtwald decades ago to capture the next demographic trend that was then on the horizon and is now a reality.
2. The Social Determinants of Health were developed by the World Health Organization and used by major institutions (US Department of Health and Human Services, Kaiser Foundation) and key research organizations throughout the US. to approach community health holistically.