Earlier this year, the Indian cricket team won the 2011 Cricket World Cup. Although India was the favorite before the tournament, cricket is a sport where any of the best teams can beat any other in their day. Thanks to the existence of online cricket simulators, we can try to determine what the chances were of India winning and how the other positions should have fared.
ODI CricSim is a flash cricket simulator that determines match results by analyzing over 200 variables from each player’s real world career, including the average length of a batsman’s innings, the chance of hitting a four or six on any given ball, the bowler’s strike rate and the bowler’s economy rate. For this experiment, I used the ODI CricSim engine to run 1000 simulated world cups based on the quarterfinal positions of the various teams. The teams for each match were the same as the teams in the real world, and in cases where a simulated team advanced when its real world counterpart did not, the quarterfinal team was used for their next match.
The results were the following:
First Quarterfinals – Pakistan vs. West Indies:
pakistani 572
West Indies 428
Second Quarterfinals – India vs. Australia:
Indian 576
Australia 424
Third Quarterfinals – New Zealand vs. South Africa:
New Zealand 399
South Africa 601
Quarter Finals – Sri Lanka vs. England:
Sri Lankan 568
England 432
The results of these quarter-final clashes suggest that New Zealand’s win over South Africa was the biggest upset of this stage of the tournament. South Africa was the only losing team that the simulator suggested should have won. In fact, South Africa was the team with the highest simulated chance of winning their quarter-finals, which will add further angst to Proteas fans who felt this tournament was a great opportunity for their team to break their World Cup duck. Cricket.
First Semifinal:
There were four possible matchups for this semi-final, and the following were the predicted chances that the matchup in question would have worked out:
New Zealand vs. England (172 iterations)
New Zealand vs. Sri Lanka (same as the real world) (227 iterations)
South Africa vs. England (260 iterations)
South Africa vs. Sri Lanka (341 iterations)
The results of the simulator were the following:
New Zealand vs. England: NZL 105, ENG 67.
New Zealand vs. Sri Lanka: 134 NZL, 93 SRL.
South Africa vs. England: SAF 181, ENG 79.
South Africa vs. Sri Lanka: SAF 180, SRL 161.
Second Semifinal:
There were four possible matchups for this semi-final, and the following were the predicted chances that the matchup in question would have worked out:
India vs. West Indies (247 iterations)
India vs. Pakistan (same as the real world) (329 iterations)
Australia vs. West Indies (181 iterations)
Australia vs. Pakistan (243 iterations)
The results of the simulator were the following:
India vs. West Indies: IND 197, WIN 50.
India vs. Pakistan: IND 238, PAK 91.
Australia v West Indies: AUS 138, WIN 43.
Australia vs. Pakistan: AUS 186, PAK 57.
Final:
There were sixteen possible matchups for the final, and the following were the predicted chances that the matchup in question would have worked out:
India vs. South Africa (157 iterations)
India vs. Sri Lanka (same as the real world) (110 iterations)
India vs. New Zealand (104 iterations)
India vs. England (64 iterations)
Australia vs. South Africa (117 iterations)
Australia vs. Sri Lanka (82 iterations)
Australia vs. New Zealand (78 iterations)
Australia v England (47 iterations)
Pakistan vs. South Africa (53 iterations)
Pakistan vs. Sri Lanka (38 iterations)
Pakistan vs. New Zealand (35 iterations)
Pakistan v England (22 iterations)
West Indies vs. South Africa (34 iterations)
West Indies vs. Sri Lanka (24 iterations)
West Indies vs. New Zealand (22 iterations)
West Indies vs. England (13 iterations)
The results of the simulator were the following:
India vs. South Africa: IND 98, SAF 59.
India vs. Sri Lanka: IND 69, SRL 41.
India vs. New Zealand: IND 63, NZL 41.
India vs. England: IND 54, ENG 10.
Australia vs. South Africa: AUS 65, SAF 52.
Australia vs. Sri Lanka: AUS 57, SRL 25.
Australia vs. New Zealand: AUS 47, NZL 31.
Australia v England: AUS 37, ENG 10.
Pakistan vs. South Africa: PAK 22, SAF 31.
Pakistan vs. Sri Lanka: PAK 19, SRL 19.
Pakistan vs. New Zealand: PAK 14, NZL 21.
Pakistan vs. England: PAK 12, ENG 9.
West Indies vs. South Africa: WIN 13, SAF 21.
West Indies vs. Sri Lanka: WIN, SRL 14.
West Indies vs. New Zealand: WIN 8, NZL 14.
West Indies vs. England: WIN 6, ENG 7.
These results give the following percentage chance of winning the 2011 Cricket World Cup, given the quarter-final qualification and given that the simulator is accurate:
Indian 28.5%
Australia 20.6%
South Africa 16.3%
New Zealand 10.7%
Sri Lankan 9.9%
Pakistan 6.7%
West Indies 3.7%
England 3.6%
It is important to note here that these rankings do not reflect the relative merits of each team, but rather their chances of winning the tournament given the quarterfinal standings and eventual opponents in the semifinals and final. Perhaps disappointingly for the tournament itself, the top two teams met in the quarterfinal stages, robbing them of what would have been a titanic final between the eventual champions and the defending triple champions.