Finding longer priced winners in horse racing requires insight and a lot of courage because you are betting against what other bettors are doing. You are saying that most punters have been wrong. The favorite wins about a third of all races, but on other race days less so due to unfavorable track conditions and what this tells us is that the betting public is very often wrong in their assessment of the race.
Most punters use the recent form as a yardstick to gauge each horse’s ability to win the race and this is the most sensible way to find the winner, but the problem for the value-seeking punter is that most punters also use recent form and guess what? they all come to basically the same conclusion.
If you have the courage to bet against the crowd, then you must think differently. What factors have been overlooked by most other punters that you can benefit from? The recent form of each horse should not always be taken at face value because, at the end of the day, form is just the result of a combination of factors. The key is to take into account the likely factors that may allow a particular horse to show marked improvement in form. The main factor is soil conditions. If a horse finished out of prizes in wet conditions in his last race and has not had previous form in such conditions, I think it is reasonable to assume that the horse was unable to handle the ground and is likely to show improvement in form if he races. . in dry conditions on your next start.
The same can be said for the change in distances. A horse may have been bred within a very short distance of his prime, but may show rapid improvement if he runs a much longer distance. There are many reasons why horses run the wrong distances, but the main one is that the race was being used as a preparation for their target race.
Other factors that can improve a horse’s form are a change in rider, a large drop in weight, a more favorable barrier position, gear changes, and a different course. The astute gambler who notices even a slight change that can improve a horse’s form can profit.
Horses can get a bad run during the race like being caught off course all the way and the horse that can finish just out of the positions after such a hard run can be good enough to win the next race with a better run .